Saturday, November 29, 2014

Market Cornucopia

The Market Trend Model ( continues to show a positive bias, but there are some concerns developing in several areas of the market.

The Russell 2000 at current levels is running into resistance that dates back to March.  Once these levels are broken the Russell 2000 may sprint higher, but for now this index appears to be hitting a brick wall.

The 10-year treasury note yield has rolled over and has been unable to recapture its 10-week moving average.  When this happened in September the equity market declined -10% in four weeks.  Right now the equity market seems little affected by falling yields.

And then there is the oil market.  OPEC, in an effort to crush North American shale producers, has maintained production targets despite lowered demand for crude oil. The $1 question remains whether lower oil prices are due to lowered demand or due to a complete oversupply because of the "shale boom".  Adding to the oil market woes is the strongly rising dollar as countries around the world fight to devalue their own currencies with their own brands of quantitative easing.

With the multitude of factors pushing and pulling at the market anything could happen going into year's end.