Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Russell 2000 Trapped in Bearish Pattern

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The Russell 2000 remains trapped in the right shoulder of a bearish head & shoulders chart pattern.  The index declined in price with expanding volume when stocks swooned in March/April and during the past six weeks the index has rallied with decreasing volume as it forms the right shoulder of the pattern.  It should be noted that the Russell 2000 volatility index remains elevated despite recent price gains in the stock index.

At this moment I would expect the Russell 2000 to rest here as recent gains are digested.

For a bullish scenario to gain traction one should look for sideways to lower price action with declining volume during the next week or two, to be followed by a resumption of higher prices with expanding volume. For a bearish scenario to continue one should look for an immediate decline in prices with expanding volume.

Russell 2000 weekly chart:
Russell 2000 volatility index: